At Wizink Center, Real Madrid (18-9) welcomes Bayern Munich (13-14). For both teams, this is the final game of the regular season.
Only the Spanish side is motivated to win tonight. Should they come up victorious, they secure the second place in the standings, passing the likes of Olympiacos and Armani Milano (both at 19-9). Normally, they beat the Bavarians and they have never suffered a defeat at home.
However, Pablo Laso’s guys have lost their last 3 games. Therefore, Real Madrid needs to win in order to enter the postseason with a psychological boost as well.
On the other hand, psychology is also a crucial factor for the Germans. They have achieved victory only once during their last five games (82-57 against Crvena Zvezda).
They have clinched the eighth spot in the regular season and will face Barcelona for a chance in a Final Four position. Corey Walden (averaging 9.8 points and 2.5 assists) will miss tonight’s game.
My prediction is that Real Madrid will win tonight. However, the handicap offered by many betting sites is way too big. My first pick is that Real Madrid will score more than 79 points (odds at 1.60). They have done so in every game against Bayern Munich.
My value bet will be Walter Tavares (averaging 11.9 points and 8 rebounds) to record at least 25 points, rebounds and assists combined (odds at 2.37). He is contributing a lot for Real Madrid, and he achieved this performance in the last game against Panathinaikos (12 points, 12 boards and 2 assists).
Safe Bet: Real Madrid to score over 79.5 points (1.60)
Value Bet: Walter Tavares over 24.5 points, rebounds and assists (2.37)
Crvena Zvezda, Efes collide in one-sided motivated game
In Belgrade, Crvena Zvezda (11-16) faces Anadolu Efes (11-16).
The Serbians blew their chances for playoff qualification in their last four games, as they remained winless (0-4). Their last win occured against Maccabi Tel-Aviv (84-77 on March 10).
Dejan Radonjic’s guys score only 73.2 points per game (third lowest in the league). Their three-point shot percentage is the lowest in the season (only 32.4%).
It is surely disappointing for their fans not to compete in the playoffs. Even more, the Final Four will take place in Belgrade and they will miss the chance to support their team as passionately as they have done in every home game.
Reigning champions Anadolu Efes is motivated for this game. Should they win, they clinch the fifth place on the table. They have missed the home-court advantage.
Star player Vasilije Micic (averaging 18.1 points and 4.1 assists) may miss tonight’s game in order to be ready for the postseason. His injury had no impact over the last two games, as Efes won both (81-76 against Bayern and 87-77 against ALBA Berlin).
Shane Larkin (averaging 14.6 points, 3 rebounds and 5.3 assists) stepped up and will surely do so tonight as well. On an interesting note, Efes have won their last six games against Zvezda.
My prediction is that Efes will secure the fifth place tonight and also cover the handicap of -2.5 (odds at 1.50). I consider this a safe bet. Furthermore, to add value, I predict that Shane Larkin will score more than 19 points tonight (odds at 2.05).
Safe Bet: Efes win -2.5 (1.50)
Value Bet: Shane Larkin over 19.5 points (2.05)
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